Thraktor
"[✄]. [✄]. [✄]. [✄]." -Microsoft
- Pronouns
- He/Him
- Jan 17, 2024
- #8,196
MisterSpo said:
Late to the conversation, but it's important to remember that console transitions aren't the long-tail process they used to be in terms of hardware sales. Early 2000s systems like PS2 and GBA enjoyed strong ongoing sales after they'd been superceded, with GBA even continuing to sell decently well in the US in 2006 and 2007 when DS was accelerating into its peak years. PS2 obviously sold significant numbers after PS3 was out, but a solid chunk of this was achieved by rolling PS2 out into markets like the Middle East; these days, systems launch contemporaneously in far more regions than they used to (especially PlayStation). So while those systems did experience solid post-successor life, some of that is explained by regional variation, and some of that regional variation no longer applies to today's market.
Since then, many market-leading devices have seen their sales drop far more rapidly, like DS once 3DS was out, or PS4 once PS5 was out. As of yet, there are no real studies of this trend, but I've often wondered if the preponderance of gaming options on mobile and tablet has hollowed out the lower price end of the market, which is where late life console sales used to come from. I do think Nintendo will try to buck this trend with Switch and hardware and software price cuts might be one way of trying that, but Switch is already the 3rd best selling system globally and the 3rd best selling system in Japan, suggesting it really is reaching the historic ceiling for a console. This is especially true of Japan, where Switch is ~500k behind GB/C for 2nd place and 1.1 million behind DS for 1st. It should be Japan's best ever selling system very soon.
All that info on the table, I'm still not sure what to expect from Nintendo in terms of timing. I honestly think they can afford to do a very quick reveal to release, and that, if stock and games are ready, they may well plump for that option. They're going to be selling to the most dedicated consumers in that initial phase, anyway, and so long as they don't balls things up spectacularly, there's a very high chance they sell every system they can ship. An earlier launch would also allow them to sell new hardware for a larger proportion of their next fiscal year, further offsetting declines from the Switch, and allowing Nintendo to build up wider mainstream awareness as their new system approaches the holiday season.
But I can see why people expect a longer lead in than that and a launch closer to the holiday season. That'd be kinda boring at this point.
This is something I've been thinking about for a while, and you're quite right that consoles don't have the same long tail as they used to, although I personally don't think Nintendo will try to buck the trend, and may actually be leaning into it.
As to why this happens, I think the economics of component costs has a big part to play in it. In the past, silicon wafer costs increased at a lower rate than transistor density was increasing, so console manufacturers had an easy way to cut costs; just move the CPU and GPU to the latest manufacturing processes and you'd save money on the chip itself, and also reduce power consumption, which allows you to cut down other costs like cooling, power supplies, etc. Combined with other ancillary cost reductions, console prices dropped way more over the course of a generation than they do now, with the PS2, for example, dropping in price by 66% from $299 to $99 by the time the PS3 launched.
By slotting in at a much lower price point than their successor, previous gen consoles used to still be a good option for people who couldn't afford the next gen hardware, including many markets where game consoles would usually be prohibitively expensive for most of the population. The PS2 in particular was a bit of a perfect storm for this, being on sale for $99 at a time when the PS3 was $499/$599, having DVD player functionality at a time when that was still pretty desirable, and a growing demand for video games in many markets which gaming companies hadn't really served before. There's a good reason that EA kept pumping out FIFA games for the PS2 all the way up to FIFA 14, a year when they published both PS2 and PS4 versions of the game (although the PS2 was in "legacy edition" territory by that point). There was a lot of demand around the world for an affordable box you could play FIFA or PES on, and PS2 served that purpose for a lot of people.
As you say, there are also a lot more options today for people who want to play games without spending a lot of money, and it's far easier to get games cheap or for free to play on devices you already own, like smartphones and laptops. Finally, I think there's also a different incentive on the part of console manufacturers themselves, particularly with seamless BC and digital libraries becoming the norm. Someone who buys the next gen console can still be sold all the previous gen games, but also new games released for the next 7-8 years, so even if a company makes less money on selling the new gen hardware, they're still likely going to make a lot more money on each sale in the long run than if they sell a unit of the previous gen hardware. I think this was a key reason in Microsoft discontinuing all Xbox One models immediately when they launched Series S and X. Even with the cross-gen period, someone buying a Series S is likely to buy games or pay for Game Pass for a lot longer than someone buying a cut-price One S in 2020. Sony had also initially discontinued the PS4 just a year after the PS5 launched, although they ended up bringing it back due to shortages of the PS5.
